Hello, Dear Reader! Today, for our inaugural entry for our What’s Up With That? series, we’re going to take a look at the upcoming debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Okay, so catch me up. What’s happened since the last debate? I haven’t really been paying attention…
Well, it’s been a pretty wild 2 months! After President Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the Democratic Party lost its mind. Polls showed public support for Biden cratered, donors started freaking out, and many Democratic Party officials began to fear that they’d lose the Presidential election. After a few weeks of handwringing and failed attempts to change the narrative about Biden’s fitness to run and stay in office another 4 years, the President eventually agreed to step aside just 4 weeks before the Democratic Party convention in Chicago.
Since then, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken up the mantle and will now be facing off against Trump in the election on November 5th.
Wow, pretty dramatic month! Can’t believe I’ve missed it! So, what’s the state of the race today? Where does everyone stand?
Well, it’s going to be a nail-biter, to say the least. Polls show that the two candidates are in a dead heat in all the swing states, separated by only 1 to 3 percentage points, within the margin of error. And with only about 8 weeks left in the election, there are increasingly fewer opportunities for either candidate to make their mark and pull ahead.
For Harris, the past 2 months have been mostly positive. Before she took over as the nominee, she wasn’t particularly well-known to, or popular with, most Americans, to an extent that Biden himself was worried about whether she could win. But since taking up the role as nominee, Harris’ poll numbers have surged, and she has won over many voters by running a campaign focusing on joyous positivity and positioning herself as an advocate for the middle class and women. Still, some voters have been frustrated by her lack of specificity on policy proposals. As the Vice President, she is also irrevocably tethered to the Biden administration, meaning she is stuck owning, at least partially, some of his positions on less popular topics like immigration and the economy.
For Trump, it’s been a bit of a rougher go. His campaign initially struggled to find a cohesive line of attack against Harris as many of their arguments centered around Biden’s age and inability to govern. He has struggled to stay on message, frequently going off-topic at rallies to talk about topics like Hannibal Lecter and rally sizes, and at times complaining that he wishes Biden were still in the race or that Harris’ nomination is “unconstitutional”. In terms of specific policy criticisms, much of his criticism of Harris has boiled down to claims that she is too liberal and a “socialist” whose policies will hurt America.
So, what should we be looking for in the debate? What are the candidates going to do (or not do)?
This is the only scheduled debate in this election, and so this will likely be the only time voters will be able to see the two candidates side-by-side. Each side is likely to try and bolster their base while also winning over the increasingly microscopic but critical share of undecided voters.
Of the two, Harris likely has the greater uphill battle. In a just-released poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, nearly 30% of voters said they wanted to know more about Harris before making up their minds. This will be a critical opportunity to make a big impression on Americans, many of whom, according to the same survey, ascribe at least some blame for the country’s problems.
For Harris, the goal is to be tough and on the offensive, drawing on her years as a prosecutor in California as she tries to make the case that Trump is a threat to American democracy. She will also need to clarify her position on critical issues, including issues like the economy and immigration, so that voters can understand who she is more clearly. It is likely she will try to spin Biden’s economic policies as positively as possible while also making the case that Trump, who appointed many of the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade, would go even further in restricting abortion nationwide.
For Trump, his job will be to define Harris before she can define herself. He has already made strides to do so over the past few weeks by trying to link her to communism and attacking her (well, really Biden’s) immigration policies. He will likely try to attack Harris on the economy, which, despite generally positive reports on inflation, many Americans still say is not working for them. Trump’s biggest enemy, though, might be himself. He is notoriously undisciplined during debates, often going off-script to ramble about golf scores and leveling personal insults that sometimes border on sexist (as he did during his 2016 debate against Hilary Clinton). While he was more disciplined during the June debate against Biden, some worry that he might revert to his old ways against Harris, whom he reportedly does not respect and has much more personal disdain for. Trump has a poor track record of staying on message in debates, especially when debating women, and there’s a real risk he could revert to ugly, personal attacks.
It’s going to be a big election, that’s clear. But I mean, come on… does this debate really matter?
Well, that depends. Given the state of polarization in America today, it seems unlikely that much would happen that would dramatically shift the election one way or another in one night. People’s positions are fossilized, and the media environment is so segmented that many people may not watch the debate and instead will just catch highlights from their preferred partisan news source.
However, this will be the only scheduled debate between the two candidates, and so will likely be the only time voters will be able to see the two side-by-side. And with the polling margins so close, even a small gain with the right voters could be enough to tip the election.
Exciting Times!
You’ve got that right, Dear Reader. Make sure to tune in for the debate Tuesday at 9pm.